It Just Can't Be That Simple
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Falling Down
This whole satellite thing has turned into some cheap Hollywood action movie script.
Earlier today I read they intended to fire at it while over Hawaii. That makes sense since all the weapons system development tools are in that area. Rather convenient that during the first operational use of your new weapon system you can grab a full data set. On the other hand, the satellite is in a polar orbit. If they hit it over Hawaii, that means the debris trail falls - yes you guessed it - over my house. So at this point I'm viewing yesterday's meteor as either a warning shot or an omen.
But it's going to be fine. According to the same Yahoo Mail post:
The government organized hazardous materials teams, under the code name "Burnt Frost," to be flown to the site of any dangerous or otherwise sensitive debris that might land in the United States or elsewhere.
Also, six federal response groups that are positioned across the country by the Federal Emergency Management Agency have been alerted but not activated, FEMA spokesman James McIntyre said. "These are purely precautionary and preparedness actions only," he said.
First of all, the polar orbit & Hawaii impact point really preclude any chance of the debris hitting the bulk of the continental US. So it seems like all that effort is a waste - i.e. just for show & politics. In addition, after the Katrina debacle not many people are going to feel good about FEMA being on the case. Personally I still want one of those "FEMA - Fix Everything My ASS" T-shirts I saw in the French Quarter.
Secondly, the press and government normally treat the general population as morons. So it's rather obvious they are playing up the danger of the "toxic hydrazine fuel". It's no more dangerous than commonly used commercial chemicals like chlorine. If you live near a railroad track you have way more danger in your back yard. All this "we are going to hit it in the fuel tank" stuff is rather sensationalistic. From a practical engineering view, if you hit the satellite with a 130 MegaJoule kinetic energy weapon it seems reasonable to expect you would at least rupture a fuel line. So the need to directly hit the fuel tank is a little preposterous.
Every thing about this points towards the government spooks protecting their toy. Yesterday I read a press release claiming the Russians were calling foul. So you should add political fallout to the total cost. I wonder how far that aspect will go.
The Yahoo article slips up & points to what seems to be the real motive: "... or otherwise sensitive debris ...". FEMA's own instructions instructions tell their people "First responders should secure a perimeter and control access around any debris. DO NOT pick up any debris. Notify your local emergency manager of its location immediately.". Loosely translated, if you find the prize call your supervisor. He'll know what to do. At that point it turns into something from an X-Files episode.
I wonder if the government is going to spent some ridiculous amount of money locating the fuel tank. Something about that idea says yes they will because it would justify the whole endeavor. You know the drill, a few choice pictures & sound bites for the nightly news demonstrating how they saved us from the toxic hydrazine danger. (Good thing it wasn't a plutoniom powered satellite.) The only other option is to claim/prove it landed in the "deep ocean". Yeah, off Hawaii around the place where the CIA (Howard Hughes) raised a cold war era Russian nuclear submarine. Looks like the Glomar Explorer might be available for another mission.
According to a Yahoo Mail post, they pulled the trigger at "10:26 EST". I'm still here so I'm probably in the clear.
Maybe I've watched too much X-Files. But it seems odd they chose to shoot it down tonight. All day long I read news reports talking about rough seas creating operational problems. On the other hand, tonight was the lunar eclipse so everyone would be looking east. Maybe, just maybe, any south to north fireball in the western sky might not be noticed. ¶ 20.2.08 0 comments
Earlier today I read they intended to fire at it while over Hawaii. That makes sense since all the weapons system development tools are in that area. Rather convenient that during the first operational use of your new weapon system you can grab a full data set. On the other hand, the satellite is in a polar orbit. If they hit it over Hawaii, that means the debris trail falls - yes you guessed it - over my house. So at this point I'm viewing yesterday's meteor as either a warning shot or an omen.
But it's going to be fine. According to the same Yahoo Mail post:
The government organized hazardous materials teams, under the code name "Burnt Frost," to be flown to the site of any dangerous or otherwise sensitive debris that might land in the United States or elsewhere.
Also, six federal response groups that are positioned across the country by the Federal Emergency Management Agency have been alerted but not activated, FEMA spokesman James McIntyre said. "These are purely precautionary and preparedness actions only," he said.
First of all, the polar orbit & Hawaii impact point really preclude any chance of the debris hitting the bulk of the continental US. So it seems like all that effort is a waste - i.e. just for show & politics. In addition, after the Katrina debacle not many people are going to feel good about FEMA being on the case. Personally I still want one of those "FEMA - Fix Everything My ASS" T-shirts I saw in the French Quarter.
Secondly, the press and government normally treat the general population as morons. So it's rather obvious they are playing up the danger of the "toxic hydrazine fuel". It's no more dangerous than commonly used commercial chemicals like chlorine. If you live near a railroad track you have way more danger in your back yard. All this "we are going to hit it in the fuel tank" stuff is rather sensationalistic. From a practical engineering view, if you hit the satellite with a 130 MegaJoule kinetic energy weapon it seems reasonable to expect you would at least rupture a fuel line. So the need to directly hit the fuel tank is a little preposterous.
Every thing about this points towards the government spooks protecting their toy. Yesterday I read a press release claiming the Russians were calling foul. So you should add political fallout to the total cost. I wonder how far that aspect will go.
The Yahoo article slips up & points to what seems to be the real motive: "... or otherwise sensitive debris ...". FEMA's own instructions instructions tell their people "First responders should secure a perimeter and control access around any debris. DO NOT pick up any debris. Notify your local emergency manager of its location immediately.". Loosely translated, if you find the prize call your supervisor. He'll know what to do. At that point it turns into something from an X-Files episode.
I wonder if the government is going to spent some ridiculous amount of money locating the fuel tank. Something about that idea says yes they will because it would justify the whole endeavor. You know the drill, a few choice pictures & sound bites for the nightly news demonstrating how they saved us from the toxic hydrazine danger. (Good thing it wasn't a plutoniom powered satellite.) The only other option is to claim/prove it landed in the "deep ocean". Yeah, off Hawaii around the place where the CIA (Howard Hughes) raised a cold war era Russian nuclear submarine. Looks like the Glomar Explorer might be available for another mission.
According to a Yahoo Mail post, they pulled the trigger at "10:26 EST". I'm still here so I'm probably in the clear.
Maybe I've watched too much X-Files. But it seems odd they chose to shoot it down tonight. All day long I read news reports talking about rough seas creating operational problems. On the other hand, tonight was the lunar eclipse so everyone would be looking east. Maybe, just maybe, any south to north fireball in the western sky might not be noticed. ¶ 20.2.08 0 comments
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Warning!
Last week I ranted about stuff falling out of the sky. Well at about 5:30 this morning a meteor fell out of the sky landing about 250 miles from here. Feels sort of like a warning shot.
¶
19.2.08
0 comments
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Splash 1 - Maybe
Those wacky gub'ment boys want to shoot down a failed satellite.
Last year they were all up in arms when China did a similar thing. Makes one wonder if this is quid pro quo? The latest arms race starting. It's all fun and games until someone screws up & hits the space station.
They are selling the concept using the safety mantra. Along those lines I gathered a few interesting bits from various web sites:
"In the past 50 years of monitoring space, 17,000 man made objects have re-entered the Earth's atmosphere."
"The odds were about three in four that the debris would hit an ocean area."
"Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."
The 3 in 4 odds are a fancy way of saying 75% of the planet is covered with water. (Wikipedia claims 71% is ocean.) Factor in the vast amounts of wilderness we have yet to overpopulate and the odds climb even higher.
Heck, we dropped the shuttle Columbia over the southern part of the US. I don't recall that debris hitting anything or anyone.
Maybe someone is itching to try out their new toy. According to the link, the system has demonstrated an 83% success rate. On the surface, it appears the chance of success is just a little bit better than the chance of the debris trail hitting nothing significant. Somehow that coincidence alone seems to justify the idea.
Other possibilities? Sure. Maybe the spooks are worried about the latest spy satellite technology surviving re-entry & falling into the wrong hands. The linked article claims this bird has all the next generation capabilities.
Yep, smells like they are running scared. It's just a bonus they get a real world operational test of the new toy. Sure would be funny (in a sad way) if the intercept fails & the bad guys recover the debris. On the other hand that scenario would be just another feather in GW's cap. Oh well, at least he didn't get caught cheating on his wife with a fat chick. ¶ 14.2.08 0 comments
Last year they were all up in arms when China did a similar thing. Makes one wonder if this is quid pro quo? The latest arms race starting. It's all fun and games until someone screws up & hits the space station.
They are selling the concept using the safety mantra. Along those lines I gathered a few interesting bits from various web sites:
"In the past 50 years of monitoring space, 17,000 man made objects have re-entered the Earth's atmosphere."
"The odds were about three in four that the debris would hit an ocean area."
"Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."
The 3 in 4 odds are a fancy way of saying 75% of the planet is covered with water. (Wikipedia claims 71% is ocean.) Factor in the vast amounts of wilderness we have yet to overpopulate and the odds climb even higher.
Heck, we dropped the shuttle Columbia over the southern part of the US. I don't recall that debris hitting anything or anyone.
Maybe someone is itching to try out their new toy. According to the link, the system has demonstrated an 83% success rate. On the surface, it appears the chance of success is just a little bit better than the chance of the debris trail hitting nothing significant. Somehow that coincidence alone seems to justify the idea.
Other possibilities? Sure. Maybe the spooks are worried about the latest spy satellite technology surviving re-entry & falling into the wrong hands. The linked article claims this bird has all the next generation capabilities.
Yep, smells like they are running scared. It's just a bonus they get a real world operational test of the new toy. Sure would be funny (in a sad way) if the intercept fails & the bad guys recover the debris. On the other hand that scenario would be just another feather in GW's cap. Oh well, at least he didn't get caught cheating on his wife with a fat chick. ¶ 14.2.08 0 comments
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
AP Humor
From the AP:
"Clinton is holding onto some of her supporters who are largely defined by race and often by level of education, such as low-income white workers and older white women, exit polls of voters show. She's been losing other blocs, again stamped by personal characteristics, such as blacks, men and young people both black and white, and better-educated whites."
Now that's funny! ¶ 13.2.08 0 comments
"Clinton is holding onto some of her supporters who are largely defined by race and often by level of education, such as low-income white workers and older white women, exit polls of voters show. She's been losing other blocs, again stamped by personal characteristics, such as blacks, men and young people both black and white, and better-educated whites."
Now that's funny! ¶ 13.2.08 0 comments
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Doom and Gloom
So it appears the IPCC has hit a grand slam home run. The whole world is solidly up in arms over global warming. Every two bit whore politician is lining up at the trough for the pork fiesta.
The thing that cracks me up the most is the scientific community battling itself. Yes it's warming. No it's not. Yeah to biofuels. Nay to biofuels. Just like the prostate cancer "experts" who can't even agree if PSA screening is worthwhile. At some level, every one seems to have an agenda. We'll know it's really out of control when Pons and Fleischmann get another grant.
Just for fun, let's assume the whole global warming thing is for real. Now look at the earth from a complex system viewpoint - long time constants, non-linear feedback mechanisms. Case in point, the February 2002 rapid breakup of the Larsen B ice shelf. Attributed in part to melt water accelerating the breakup process. Now that the ice shelf is gone, the glacier which fed it is expected to accelerate. So now the glacier will disappear quicker than expected. Turns out ice shelves acts like a dam & impedes a glaciers flow. Bottom line - we're getting started on global warming about 20-30 years too late.
How are we going to make significant cuts in greenhouse gases without drastically impacting someone's lifestyle? We aren't! Time to face the music folks. I say let the culling begin. I just can't decide if I'd prefer to select based upon IQ or BMI.
It's a pretty safe bet the whole green energy thing is going to continue growing. All the bullshit ideas like biofuels are going to be short lived (at least in the current context). Solar, wind and the like will continue to make strides. Eventually they will become significant players. Even nuclear will be re-invigorated - stuff like pebble bed gas reactors with recycled fuel. And some day we might even get to real fusion. One thing is for sure, their will be no shortage of "experts".
Some way, some how we will get through it all. Let's just hope it doesn't lead us into WW III. Not an unlikely scenario when push comes to shove. ¶ 12.2.08 0 comments
The thing that cracks me up the most is the scientific community battling itself. Yes it's warming. No it's not. Yeah to biofuels. Nay to biofuels. Just like the prostate cancer "experts" who can't even agree if PSA screening is worthwhile. At some level, every one seems to have an agenda. We'll know it's really out of control when Pons and Fleischmann get another grant.
Just for fun, let's assume the whole global warming thing is for real. Now look at the earth from a complex system viewpoint - long time constants, non-linear feedback mechanisms. Case in point, the February 2002 rapid breakup of the Larsen B ice shelf. Attributed in part to melt water accelerating the breakup process. Now that the ice shelf is gone, the glacier which fed it is expected to accelerate. So now the glacier will disappear quicker than expected. Turns out ice shelves acts like a dam & impedes a glaciers flow. Bottom line - we're getting started on global warming about 20-30 years too late.
How are we going to make significant cuts in greenhouse gases without drastically impacting someone's lifestyle? We aren't! Time to face the music folks. I say let the culling begin. I just can't decide if I'd prefer to select based upon IQ or BMI.
It's a pretty safe bet the whole green energy thing is going to continue growing. All the bullshit ideas like biofuels are going to be short lived (at least in the current context). Solar, wind and the like will continue to make strides. Eventually they will become significant players. Even nuclear will be re-invigorated - stuff like pebble bed gas reactors with recycled fuel. And some day we might even get to real fusion. One thing is for sure, their will be no shortage of "experts".
Some way, some how we will get through it all. Let's just hope it doesn't lead us into WW III. Not an unlikely scenario when push comes to shove. ¶ 12.2.08 0 comments
